China's ‘waiting game' on Dalai Lama succession could intensify resistance, galvanise support for Tibetan cause

Beijing, Oct 17 : Beijing’s refusal to negotiate with the Dalai Lama reflects a calculated waiting game, with Chinese leadership anticipating that his passing will allow it to control succession and neutralise the Tibetan issue, a report has stated.

However, it argued that the belief that succession can be dictated by decree overlooks the spiritual authority underpinning Tibetan Buddhism, while warning that the Dalai Lama’s passing could instead intensify resistance and galvanise international support for the Tibetan cause.

“Beijing has consistently refused to negotiate with the Dalai Lama. This stance is not tactical indecision but a deliberate strategy: the Chinese leadership is playing a waiting game, anticipating that His Holiness’s passing will allow them to control succession and neutralise the Tibetan issue. While this approach may consolidate short-term authority, it carries significant risks for legitimacy, stability, and international relations,” Khedroob Thondup, nephew of the 14th Dalai Lama, wrote in 'The Tibet Express'.

According to Thondup, Beijing’s reluctance to engage in dialogue stems from concerns that doing so would confer political legitimacy on the Dalai Lama, contradicting its narrative that he is a separatist figure.

He noted the Chinese authorities also fear that concessions to Tibet could embolden other minority regions to demand greater autonomy, posing a challenge to China’s centralised system of governance.

At the same time, he said, Beijing intends to appoint the next Dalai Lama through state-controlled mechanisms, reinforcing its claim to authority over religious affairs.

“The Waiting Game. Beijing’s refusal to negotiate is rooted in three assumptions: Exile fragmentation: The Tibetan exile community will weaken without the Dalai Lama’s unifying leadership. State appointment: A government-appointed Dalai Lama will delegitimize the exile-recognized successor. Global fatigue: International attention will diminish after His Holiness passes away,” Thondup mentioned.

Emphasising the challenge to religious legitimacy, he stated that Tibetan Buddhists across the world might refuse to recognise a state-appointed Dalai Lama, weakening Beijing’s authority.

Thondup warned that succession-related disputes could strengthen global backing for Tibet instead of diminishing it, while coercive measures could intensify resentment and accelerate the alienation of Tibetans.

Assessing the policy implications for Beijing, Thondup said the approach could deliver short-term control at the cost of long-term stability and the country’s international reputation.

“For Tibetans in exile: Planning for succession and maintaining unity will be critical to counter Beijing’s narrative. For international actors: Sustained engagement on religious freedom and cultural preservation will be essential to prevent Beijing’s strategy from succeeding unchallenged,” he noted.