Is BJP’s target of 370 seats in Lok Sabha polls achievable?
New Delhi, February 17: The rank and file of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is enthused and energised over the ‘saffron wave’ gripping the country after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.
The party's top brass has launched a series of campaign strategy and outreach programme to mobilise the masses in the urban and rural centers as well as the Generation Z via digital media, for giving not just a third term to the Modi government, but with a resounding and record mandate.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said at an election rally that the BJP will bag more than 370 seats on its own, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will cross the 400-seat mark.
Axis My India, one of the most credible polling agencies, has released its ‘analysis and arithmetic’ on how the saffron party can realise the dream of 370 seats in the upcoming Parliamentary elections.
Speaking to IANS over phone, Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director of Axis My India, said that the BJP’s projected numbers could be a reality, given the party’s renewed allies' support and its repeat performance in 2024, akin to the 2019 elections.
“NDA has been strengthened in Bihar and Maharashtra, with Nitish Kumar switching side to the BJP and also rebel factions of Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) joining hands. This indeed has been a shot in the arm for the NDA, but it needs to replicate the strike rate of 2019 polls,” he said.
As per Axis My India’s poll number calculation, the BJP will require the three factors mentioned below for scripting a bigger victory than 2019.
Retaining strongholds
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA had a strike rate of 94 per cent and made a clean sweep in the Hindi heartland. In many states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Jharkhand, it won more than 94 per cent of the total LS seats, thereby winning 198 of the total 210 seats. This time too the party will have to retain the same 94 per cent strike rate, rather spike it further.
Better NDA tally in key states
The BJP demolished its rivals in the Northern belt but its performance in the Southern states remained unsatisfactory. In Uttar Pradesh too, the party lost 16 out of 80 seats. This time, it will need to close these gaps and aim for even greater share from the country’s biggest state. In out of these 285 seats, the party grabbed 114 seats, at a strike rate of 40 per cent. The party will need to increase the strike rate to 57 per cent this time, i.e., register victory on 161 of the 285 seats.
Equation with Shiv Sena and NCP
Maharashtra remains one of the crucial states for the BJP. In the 2019 elections, it won 23 seats while its key ally Shiv Sena bagged 18 seats. Together, they claimed 41 out of the 48 seats, resulting in a strike rate of 85 per cent.
After the vertical split in Shiv Sena and NCP, the BJP will be expected to not just retain its own 23 seats, but also command victory on 18 seats.