BJP looks set to return to power in Rajasthan

New Delhi, Nov 30:  An exclusive Exit Poll conducted by CVoter on behalf of ABP News finds that the BJP looks set to recapture Rajasthan in the latest round of Assembly elections, a state it had lost in 2018.

According to the Exit Poll conducted with a sample size of 34,690, the Congress is projected to get 41.1 per cent votes, up from 39.3 per cent in 2018. However, the BJP's vote share is projected to go up even more, to 44.7 per cent from the 38.8 per cent it managed in 2018.

This gap in vote share seems enough to push the BJP towards the majority mark of 101 in the 199-member state Assembly.

As per the Exit Poll, the BJP is projected to win between 94 and 104 seats, while the Congress is projected to win between 71 and 91 seats.

Even in the best case scenario for the Congress, the Exit Poll doesn’t show the party near the majority mark. But in the best case scenario for the BJP, the party gets a comfortable majority.

The vote share of others in this round of elections is set to decline to 11.7 per cent, as compared to 17.9 per cent in 2018.

Yet, a deeper analysis of the Exit Poll data shows that there are about 50 seats where others, which include rebels from both the BJP and the Congress, could play spoilsport. Then there is the anti-incumbency factor.

According to the Exit Poll data, if all the marginal seats go anti-incumbent, the BJP is projected to win between 130 and 140 seats. However, if all the marginal seats go pro-incumbent, the Congress is projected to win between 91 and 101 seats.

It does appear as if Ashok Gehlot is on his way out, making way for a new Chief Minister.