Best opportunity for BJP in Bengal, Assam had one-sided finish, DMK retains edge in Tamil Nadu: Matrize Director
Noida, April 30 : The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has its strongest opening yet in West Bengal, Assam witnessed a largely one-sided contest towards the end, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) continues to hold an advantage in Tamil Nadu, Matrize News Communications Pvt. Ltd Director Manoj Kumar Singh, while cautioning that voting percentage alone cannot reliably predict electoral outcomes.
Talking to IANS on the Assam elections, Singh emphasised that vote share and seat conversion are "two entirely different aspects", particularly in a smaller state like Assam, where even marginal shifts can have outsized impacts. "A small change in vote percentage can significantly alter results. Deriving seat projections purely from voting percentage can lead to confusion," he said.
He noted that the Assam election appeared to turn into a one-sided contest in its final phase. Among the factors influencing the shift, Singh pointed to a controversy raised by the Congress involving allegations linked to a passport issue concerning the wife of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. "The Chief Minister reacted swiftly, and action followed. After the allegations, (Congress leader) Pawan Khera left Assam, which created a perception among Congress party workers that the leadership was weak," he said.
Singh also argued that the traditional Hindu–Muslim narrative no longer dominates Assam politics. He attributed this shift to delimitation, which he said increased the number of Hindu-majority constituencies. "...After delimitation, that dynamic has changed considerably," he added.
Turning to Tamil Nadu, Singh said the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) continues to maintain a strong grip on the state under the leadership of M.K. Stalin. He noted that while actor Vijay's newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) generated enthusiasm, particularly among the youth, it was expected to cut into the vote share of both the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
"I had projected that DMK would secure around 122–132 seats, ensuring a clear majority without the possibility of a hung assembly. The AIADMK was estimated to win between 87 and 100 seats, while the TVK, being new, was expected to garner a notable vote share," Singh said.
On Kerala, Singh, who did not make a clear prediction, observed that despite expectations of anti-incumbency, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to retain power in 2021, defying the state’s tradition of alternating governments. However, he suggested that concerns such as the age and perceived reduced political aggression of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan could have been factors working against the ruling alliance.
Commenting on West Bengal, Singh was confident of a strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party. "This is the best opportunity for the BJP in Bengal; it cannot get better than this," he said, adding that exit poll trends also reflected this momentum.
He also highlighted a significant turnout of migrant voters in the state. "Many people returned to vote out of fear that their names might be removed from voter lists or that they could face identity-related issues. Both the All India Trinamool Congress and the BJP mobilised their supporters effectively," Singh said.
Overall, Singh maintained that electoral outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of factors, and simplistic interpretations based on isolated data points like voting percentage can often lead to flawed conclusions.
Talking to IANS on the Assam elections, Singh emphasised that vote share and seat conversion are "two entirely different aspects", particularly in a smaller state like Assam, where even marginal shifts can have outsized impacts. "A small change in vote percentage can significantly alter results. Deriving seat projections purely from voting percentage can lead to confusion," he said.
He noted that the Assam election appeared to turn into a one-sided contest in its final phase. Among the factors influencing the shift, Singh pointed to a controversy raised by the Congress involving allegations linked to a passport issue concerning the wife of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. "The Chief Minister reacted swiftly, and action followed. After the allegations, (Congress leader) Pawan Khera left Assam, which created a perception among Congress party workers that the leadership was weak," he said.
Singh also argued that the traditional Hindu–Muslim narrative no longer dominates Assam politics. He attributed this shift to delimitation, which he said increased the number of Hindu-majority constituencies. "...After delimitation, that dynamic has changed considerably," he added.
Turning to Tamil Nadu, Singh said the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) continues to maintain a strong grip on the state under the leadership of M.K. Stalin. He noted that while actor Vijay's newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) generated enthusiasm, particularly among the youth, it was expected to cut into the vote share of both the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
"I had projected that DMK would secure around 122–132 seats, ensuring a clear majority without the possibility of a hung assembly. The AIADMK was estimated to win between 87 and 100 seats, while the TVK, being new, was expected to garner a notable vote share," Singh said.
On Kerala, Singh, who did not make a clear prediction, observed that despite expectations of anti-incumbency, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to retain power in 2021, defying the state’s tradition of alternating governments. However, he suggested that concerns such as the age and perceived reduced political aggression of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan could have been factors working against the ruling alliance.
Commenting on West Bengal, Singh was confident of a strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party. "This is the best opportunity for the BJP in Bengal; it cannot get better than this," he said, adding that exit poll trends also reflected this momentum.
He also highlighted a significant turnout of migrant voters in the state. "Many people returned to vote out of fear that their names might be removed from voter lists or that they could face identity-related issues. Both the All India Trinamool Congress and the BJP mobilised their supporters effectively," Singh said.
Overall, Singh maintained that electoral outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of factors, and simplistic interpretations based on isolated data points like voting percentage can often lead to flawed conclusions.
