US Vice President Vance blames Iran war for Republican defeat
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US Vice President J D Vance said on Wednesday that the war with Iran was the main reason Republicans lost the midterm elections, arguing that voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 turned against his party despite turning out to vote. In a lengthy post on X, Vance offered an unusually direct assessment of Tuesday's defeat, saying internal Republican data had initially suggested that the party's supporters were voting in sufficient numbers to avoid a sweeping setback. "But the main problem is not turnout.
The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026," he wrote. Vance said Republican analysts had closely monitored the "composition" of the electorate, comparing it with the coalition that elected Trump and Vance two years earlier. In some states, turnout looked ordinary; in others, he said, it was exceptionally strong.
But an unnamed data analyst had cautioned that turnout would not necessarily translate into Republican votes. Vance recalled being told: "Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." The Vice President said a pollster he respected had warned him before the election that Republicans could lose the national generic congressional ballot by 13 percentage points.
That pollster, he said, asked disaffected 2024 Trump voters what would bring them back. The four leading responses, according to Vance, were to end the war, address the cost of living and inflation, put America first, and change Washington's relationship with Israel. "Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats," he said.
Vance did not identify the pollster or provide the survey's sample size, fieldwork dates or other methodological details. He acknowledged criticism that the Republican campaign had failed to sharpen its economic message in the closing weeks, but insisted that the central cause of defeat was clear. "The reason we lost is the war.
The president himself said so last night," Vance wrote. Trump told Fox News after the election that Iran was partly responsible for the Republican losses, although he defended the decision to wage war. In a separate interview with The Wall Street Journal, he described Iran as one element of the outcome and said he did not regret the military campaign.
Vance challenged supporters of the conflict to acknowledge its political cost, arguing that losing Senate seats for six years was a consequence that advocates of the war should be prepared to defend. He also warned against attempts within the Republican Party to blame the result on immigration policy or advocate amnesty for people living in the country unlawfully.
Vance said he was open to adjusting enforcement, including greater scrutiny of employers who hire workers without legal status, but rejected amnesty as a response to the election. Acknowledging likely internal arguments, Vance urged disappointed Republican supporters to channel their anger into future elections rather than abandon the party.
Democrats won control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to CBS News projections. Their Senate gains included victories in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and South Carolina, reversing Republican control of the chamber. The elections were held midway through Trump's second four-year term.
The US-Israeli war with Iran began in February and has disrupted regional shipping and energy markets, while high fuel prices and household costs became major campaign issues across the United States.
The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026," he wrote. Vance said Republican analysts had closely monitored the "composition" of the electorate, comparing it with the coalition that elected Trump and Vance two years earlier. In some states, turnout looked ordinary; in others, he said, it was exceptionally strong.
But an unnamed data analyst had cautioned that turnout would not necessarily translate into Republican votes. Vance recalled being told: "Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." The Vice President said a pollster he respected had warned him before the election that Republicans could lose the national generic congressional ballot by 13 percentage points.
That pollster, he said, asked disaffected 2024 Trump voters what would bring them back. The four leading responses, according to Vance, were to end the war, address the cost of living and inflation, put America first, and change Washington's relationship with Israel. "Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats," he said.
Vance did not identify the pollster or provide the survey's sample size, fieldwork dates or other methodological details. He acknowledged criticism that the Republican campaign had failed to sharpen its economic message in the closing weeks, but insisted that the central cause of defeat was clear. "The reason we lost is the war.
The president himself said so last night," Vance wrote. Trump told Fox News after the election that Iran was partly responsible for the Republican losses, although he defended the decision to wage war. In a separate interview with The Wall Street Journal, he described Iran as one element of the outcome and said he did not regret the military campaign.
Vance challenged supporters of the conflict to acknowledge its political cost, arguing that losing Senate seats for six years was a consequence that advocates of the war should be prepared to defend. He also warned against attempts within the Republican Party to blame the result on immigration policy or advocate amnesty for people living in the country unlawfully.
Vance said he was open to adjusting enforcement, including greater scrutiny of employers who hire workers without legal status, but rejected amnesty as a response to the election. Acknowledging likely internal arguments, Vance urged disappointed Republican supporters to channel their anger into future elections rather than abandon the party.
Democrats won control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to CBS News projections. Their Senate gains included victories in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and South Carolina, reversing Republican control of the chamber. The elections were held midway through Trump's second four-year term.
The US-Israeli war with Iran began in February and has disrupted regional shipping and energy markets, while high fuel prices and household costs became major campaign issues across the United States.
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