IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall across India in Sep amid strong El Nino conditions
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New Delhi, Aug 31 : The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted below-normal rainfall over the country as a whole and above-normal temperatures across most regions in its monthly weather outlook for September.
According to the forecast, monthly rainfall during September is most likely to be below normal, defined as less than 91 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for September rainfall, based on data from 1971-2020, stands at about 167.9 mm.
Spatially, many parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
However, some areas in the northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India are likely to see normal to above-normal rainfall.
The probabilistic forecast of tercile rainfall categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) indicates widespread below-normal rainfall.
On temperatures, monthly average maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country. Monthly average minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal over most regions, except some parts of northwest, west-central and northeast India, where they are likely to be normal to below normal.
Currently, strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the IMD press release said.
These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from IMD’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through September.
However, some international climate centres indicate a possible transition to positive IOD conditions from September onwards.
Below-normal rainfall can adversely affect agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability, while also increasing the risk of heat stress in several regions. IMD has advised timely preparedness measures, including water conservation, efficient resource management and agricultural contingency planning by agencies and stakeholders concerned.
The IMD will issue the forecast for the Northeast Monsoon Season (October to December 2026) and the rainfall and temperature outlook for October towards the end of September.
According to the forecast, monthly rainfall during September is most likely to be below normal, defined as less than 91 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for September rainfall, based on data from 1971-2020, stands at about 167.9 mm.
Spatially, many parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
However, some areas in the northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India are likely to see normal to above-normal rainfall.
The probabilistic forecast of tercile rainfall categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) indicates widespread below-normal rainfall.
On temperatures, monthly average maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country. Monthly average minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal over most regions, except some parts of northwest, west-central and northeast India, where they are likely to be normal to below normal.
Currently, strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the IMD press release said.
These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from IMD’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through September.
However, some international climate centres indicate a possible transition to positive IOD conditions from September onwards.
Below-normal rainfall can adversely affect agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability, while also increasing the risk of heat stress in several regions. IMD has advised timely preparedness measures, including water conservation, efficient resource management and agricultural contingency planning by agencies and stakeholders concerned.
The IMD will issue the forecast for the Northeast Monsoon Season (October to December 2026) and the rainfall and temperature outlook for October towards the end of September.
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