US-Venezuela conflict: Indian refiners set to gain, says report
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New Delhi, Jan 5 : The US capture of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro and taking over its oil fields could lead to Indian refineries benefiting from imports of heavier Venezuelan barrels, which trade at a discount to Brent, boosting their gross refining margins, a report showed on Monday.
The report from Choice Institutional Equities said that India previously imported up to 400 thousand barrels per day (KBD) of Venezuelan crude and that access to equipment and investments could be granted upstream Indian players which could subsequently increase their output from the fields of San Cristobal and Carabobo-1.
The brokerage forecasted that Brent is expected to average about $61.5 per barrel in CY26, with limited additional barrels entering the market this year, though fresh Venezuelan supply could weigh on prices beginning next year.
The report further said heavier Venezuelan barrels could accelerate the rationing of simpler refineries globally as more complex plants in India and China come online, potentially improving cracks over the medium term as supply balances.
The possibility of a large output jump from Venezuela is constrained by years of underinvestment by the state-owned oil producing firm PDVSA and, in a best‑case scenario, production could rise by about 150 KBD in 2026 through operational spending, with larger increases needing significant capital investment, it said.
US captured Venezuela's President on January 3, 2026 and flew him out to face charges, such as narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, among others, in a US court.
US President Donald Trump announced that the US oil companies will invest an unspecified amount to revive the oil infrastructure in the South American nation and increase its oil output, enabling higher crude flows to the US and other markets.
Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, produced about 0.9 million barrels per day in November 2025, compared to 2 million barrels per day in the early 2010s.
The report from Choice Institutional Equities said that India previously imported up to 400 thousand barrels per day (KBD) of Venezuelan crude and that access to equipment and investments could be granted upstream Indian players which could subsequently increase their output from the fields of San Cristobal and Carabobo-1.
The brokerage forecasted that Brent is expected to average about $61.5 per barrel in CY26, with limited additional barrels entering the market this year, though fresh Venezuelan supply could weigh on prices beginning next year.
The report further said heavier Venezuelan barrels could accelerate the rationing of simpler refineries globally as more complex plants in India and China come online, potentially improving cracks over the medium term as supply balances.
The possibility of a large output jump from Venezuela is constrained by years of underinvestment by the state-owned oil producing firm PDVSA and, in a best‑case scenario, production could rise by about 150 KBD in 2026 through operational spending, with larger increases needing significant capital investment, it said.
US captured Venezuela's President on January 3, 2026 and flew him out to face charges, such as narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, among others, in a US court.
US President Donald Trump announced that the US oil companies will invest an unspecified amount to revive the oil infrastructure in the South American nation and increase its oil output, enabling higher crude flows to the US and other markets.
Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, produced about 0.9 million barrels per day in November 2025, compared to 2 million barrels per day in the early 2010s.
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